The knives have been out the past week. Tomorrow is the Florida primary and its looking like Willard Mitt Romney will win big. This is a major blow to the Gingrich campaign, which hoped South Carolina would be a major shot in the arm. Now, we’re back where we were at the beginning of the month–It looks like Romney is going to ride his way to the nomination.
Most of the upcoming contests favor Romney:
– Nevada: The Nevada caucuses are on February 4th. Romney won the caucuses in 2008 with 51 percent of the vote. According to the Las Vegas Review Journal Romney is leading here by 4 percent. Nevada has the second highest number of Mormons than any other state, so this is perceived as Romney’s home turf.
– Maine: The Maine caucuses begin on the fourth and go to the 11th. There isn’t a lot going on in the news about Maine, but RealClear Politics has Romney winning. This is sort of perceived as Romney’s home turf.
– Colorado: There is a caucus on February 7th. PPP seems to be the only place polling here, but Romney is head in every poll.
Minnesota: Here is bright spot for Newt! Minnesota is also on the 7th. PPP also seems to be the only people will polling, and Gingrich is ahead by 18 percent.
Missouri: Also held on the 7th. Missouri is having a caucus, but the results are non-binding. RCP doesn’t seem to have any polling on this. O’Reilly had Santorum on discussing the caucus. It doesn’t seem like many of the other candidates are competing.
Michigan: The primary is on February 28th. Romney won big here in 2008; of course, Romney was born here, so Michigan is another one of his home states! The polls here all seem to agree that Romney is going to win again. He’s ahead by as little as 5 percent and is ahead by over 30 percent in other polls.
Arizona: Arizona will also be having its primary on the 28th. Arizona went to McCain in 2008, so that’s not a strong indicator of how it would go this year. RCP has Romney ahead here in nearly every other poll.
So, that’s the month of February. It’s looking incredibly difficult for Newt Gingrich to mount a serious opposition to Romney. And, Conservatives are continuing to wring their hangs at the thought Romney winning the nomination and facing Obama in the general election.
Mark Levin is fretting about Romney winning:
My great fear is, however, that he is the weakest candidate who can face Obama and will go into the general election with a fractured base, thanks to his own character flaws, which are now on display, and his tactics of personal destruction. Moreover, while Romney can swamp his Republican opponents by 3 to 1 or more in every state with his spending advantage, Barack Obama will be raising more and spending more to beat him in the general election, meaning Romney’s financial advantage will be non-existent.
With all this, it’s looking like Newt is done. But, why? Well, if you listen to Sean Hannity and the rest, you’d believe that the GOP establishment has destroyed Newt.
The problem here is that Conservatives basically control the Republican party. Who exactly is the leader of the liberal wing of the Republican party? Almost six years ago now, I would have said that Lincoln Chaffee was the most liberal member of the Republican party and the “leader” of the liberal republicans. Of course, leader would imply that he led a block of like-minded individuals. In reality he was probably one of the loneliest people in Washington. He was the Senator from Rhode Island and basically voted against everything the national Republican party did. He lost to Sheldon Whitehouse in a bad year for Republicans. In 2010, Mike Castle, a liberal Republican from Delaware, was defeated in the primaries by Christine O’Donnell.
I’m lost at how the “establishment” has somehow destroyed authentic Conservatives. If the establishment had any power, then Mike Castle would have won the Delaware primary. And, I’m damned well sure that Sharon Angle wouldn’t have been nominated to go against Mr. Cowboy poet Harry Reid.
Newt is losing because he’s alienated most people that he’s worked with. And, if anything, Newt is as closest thing you can get to an establishment as there is.